This PhD is part of the LaSer-Med (Towards an integrated prediction of Land & Sea Responses to global change in the Mediterranean Basin) project and more specifically at the heart of the oceanic part of this project.
The first aim of this PhD will be to defined relevant environmental indicators that will characterize the biogeochemical functioning of the Mediterranean and/or link some biogeochemical features of the Mediterranean to key ecosystem services. Correlations between these indicators and climatic indicators (NAO, MO,…) will be sought. These indicators will then be used to compare two simulations/scenarios and to assess the effects of climate change on key ecosystem services. For this purpose, and in order to estimate the actual carbon sequestration, the inorganic carbon chemistry will be included into the biogeochemical model. Then, a hindcast simulation using coupled ocean/atmosphere physical forcings as well as river outputs provided by the agrosystem LPJmL model will be run and analysed through the indicators previously defined.
The second main objective of this phD is to investigate the effect of climate change (including rive inputs changes in terms of nutrients and organic matter) on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem. For this purpose, simulations of the marine ecosystem forced by RCP scenarios, including river inputs consistently provided by LPJml using current land-use will be run. These simulations will allow us to investigate the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems through the previously defined indicators and will be used as a reference for future simulations including both climate and socio-economic (SE) scenario.